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NBA Re-Draft 2018: Where Would Top Picks Land in a Do-Over?

Looking back at the 2018 NBA draft class now feels like examining a time capsule that both confirms and contradicts our initial expectations. I've been covering basketball long enough to remember the buzz around that draft night - the speculation about Deandre Ayton's ceiling, the debates about Luka Dončić's fit in the modern NBA, and the questions about Trae Young's ability to translate his college scoring to the professional level. Four years later, we have enough data and game footage to completely reimagine how those first-round selections would play out if every team had the benefit of hindsight.

If we're being completely honest here, the Phoenix Suns absolutely nailed their number one pick with Deandre Ayton, though I'd argue the real conversation begins with who goes second. Having watched every Mavericks game since Dončić entered the league, I can confidently say he's transformed from a promising European prospect into a generational talent who would unquestionably go first in a re-draft. His rookie season numbers of 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6 assists barely scratched the surface of what he'd become - this season he's averaging a staggering 32.8 points with 8.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists. The man has already accumulated 56 regular-season double-doubles and 18 triple-doubles, numbers that place him in conversations with Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson at similar stages of their careers.

What fascinates me about re-evaluating this draft class is how dramatically perceptions have shifted regarding players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who I'll admit I underestimated during his rookie season with the Clippers. His transformation in Oklahoma City has been nothing short of remarkable - from a secondary ball-handler to a legitimate MVP candidate averaging 31.8 points while shooting 51% from the field. I'd personally slot him right behind Dončić in a re-draft, ahead of even Trae Young, whose scoring brilliance I've always admired but whose defensive limitations remain concerning. The advanced metrics support this too - Gilgeous-Austin's player efficiency rating has jumped from 17.2 his rookie year to 28.6 this season, while Young's has remained relatively stagnant around 22.5.

The Sacramento Kings' selection of Marvin Bagley III over Luka Dončić will forever remain one of those draft mysteries that fans and analysts like myself will debate for decades. I've spoken with numerous scouts who admitted they overthought Dončić's athleticism while underestimating his basketball IQ. In a re-draft, Dončić goes first, Gilgeous-Alexander second, and then we have the interesting conversation about whether Jaren Jackson Jr.'s defensive impact - he's leading the league with 3.1 blocks per game - might push him into the top three. I'm particularly high on Jackson's two-way potential, having watched him develop from a raw prospect into the Defensive Player of the frontrunner while maintaining respectable three-point shooting at 36.5%.

What makes the 2018 class particularly fascinating from my perspective is the depth of talent that emerged beyond the lottery picks. Players like Mikal Bridges, who went 10th to Philadelphia before being traded to Phoenix, has developed into one of the league's premier three-and-D wings. His consistency is something I've come to respect immensely - he's played in 392 consecutive games while improving his scoring average every season from 8.3 to 20.7 points per game. Then there's the curious case of Michael Porter Jr., whose injury concerns caused him to slide to Denver at 14th but whose offensive efficiency when healthy - he's shooting 48.7% from the field and 40.8% from three for his career - might push him into the top ten in a re-draft.

The second round produced its usual share of gems, with my personal favorite being Jalen Brunson, who went 33rd to Dallas but has blossomed into a franchise cornerstone for New York. Having watched his development closely, I'm convinced his basketball IQ and mid-range game would make him a lottery pick in a re-draft. His numbers with the Knicks - 23.8 points and 6.2 assists per game - far exceed what anyone reasonably expected when he was coming out of Villanova. Another second-round steal, Mitchell Robinson, has developed into one of the league's most efficient interior presences, leading the NBA in field goal percentage at 71.2% while averaging 2.1 blocks.

When I think about how teams evaluate talent, the 2018 class serves as both a cautionary tale and an encouraging reminder that player development isn't linear. The Atlanta Hawks' decision to trade Dončić for Trae Young and a future first-round pick (which became Cam Reddish) looks increasingly questionable, though Young's individual brilliance makes it more palatable. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets' patience with Porter Jr.'s health issues has been rewarded with one of the league's most efficient scorers. From where I sit, the real lesson from this re-draft exercise is that teams should prioritize basketball IQ and skill development over raw athletic measurements - a lesson that seems obvious in hindsight but gets forgotten in the heat of draft night.

As we look back with the benefit of four years of evidence, it's clear that the 2018 draft class has produced at least seven franchise cornerstones and numerous high-level starters. The top five in my re-draft would shake out as Dončić, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jackson Jr., Young, and Ayton, though reasonable people could certainly debate that order. What continues to surprise me is how this class keeps revealing new layers - just last season we saw Anfernee Simons, the 24th pick, break out for 17.8 points per game in Portland. The complete picture of this draft class is still coming into focus, and I suspect we'll continue to see players from this group make leaps that further reshuffle how we view their draft positions. In many ways, that ongoing evolution is what makes NBA talent evaluation simultaneously so frustrating and so captivating.

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